With only four days to go, it seems that Obama has the election sewn up. There have been a few polls that indicate tightening, but then again the media has to have something to talk about. The story since the financial crisis hit has been that Obama has won, and they need the story to change.
Despite the faux drama, I think it will be an early night Tuesday. The polls generally show Obama with a 5+ point national lead. Races often tighten at the end, except when they don’t. I’m thinking of the Carter/Reagan election of 1980, when pollsters were saying it would be close, and it wasn’t. Given Obama’s superior turn-out-the-vote operation, he will probably exceed the polling numbers. I think it will be a 7-point or slightly larger margin, with Obama winning by close to 100 electoral votes.
Personally I didn’t care very much until the past few weeks. But McCain’s performance has been erratic and at times revolting, and the choice of Sarah Palin is completely disqualifying, so I will be voting for Obama while keeping my fingers crossed for the next four years. Obama is clearly smart, disciplined and pragmatic. He surrounds himself with highly competent people and gets the best out of them. If the way he has run his campaign is any indication, and I think it is, then the sort of rampant incompetence that has been the hallmark of the Bush administration will come to an end. We will see.
Meanwhile, I’m sitting here trying to decide how late I need to stay to avoid traffic during what will probably be the worst rush hour of the year in Atlanta. Halloween is a nightmare every year, and this year it’ll probably be even worse, since it’s on a Friday.
